Press and Events


18/11/2005

EMBRAER ANNOUNCES ITS LONG TERM MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE AIRLINE AND BUSINESS JET MARKETS

São José dos Campos, November 18, 2005 – During the 6th Embraer Day held November 17 and 18 at its headquarters in São José dos Campos, Brazil, Embraer (BOVESPA: EMBR3 e EMBR4) (NYSE: ERJ) presented its 20-year forecast for world demand of 30- to 120-seat commercial jets as well as for the business jet market. At the same event, Embraer announced its airline and business jet delivery forecast for 2006 and 2007.

Long Term Market Outlook

Airline Market


Embraer foresees a global demand for 7,950 jets in the 30- to 120-seat capacity segment over the next 20 years. The Company estimates that 3,350 aircraft will be delivered between 2006 and 2015, with the remaining 4,600 units to be deliveredbetween 2016 and 2025. The total market value is estimated at US$ 180 billion, as presented below:

​Market Segment (Seats) ​2006-2015 ​2016-2025 ​2006-2025
​30 - 60 ​500 ​1,050 ​1,550
​61 - 90 ​1,300 ​1,650 ​2,950
​91 - 120 ​1,550 ​1,900 ​3,450
Total 3,350 4,600 7,950
 
Our forecast indicates that the 30- to 60-seat market segment has reached maturity, but will continue to play an important role in the air transport industry. There is an increased market demand for 61- to 120-seat aircraft as a result of regional airlines natural growth, replacement of ageing aircraft, right-sizing requirements from network airlines and low cost carriers expansion to mid-sized markets.

Embraer projects the following deliveries by region in the next 20 years:
​Region ​Jet Deliveries (30 - 120 seats) ​Percentage
​USA, Canada & Caribbean ​4,230 ​53%
​Europe ​1,450 ​18%
​China 590 ​7%
​Russia & CIS
​525 ​7%
​Latin America ​465 ​6%
​Asia Pacific ​410 ​5%
​Africa & Middle East ​280 ​4%
​Total (2006 - 2025) 7,950
  The Embraer Market Outlook 2006-2025 report will be available online from January 2006 at www.embraer.com/outlook.

Business Jet Market

Embraer estimates an overall demand for 9,680 business jets over the next ten years, which is in line with the figures reported by the industry. The current forecast includes the expected worldwide demand for the very light jet segment and does not take into consideration potential demand for the new air taxi market.

The very light jet segment is expected to reach 2,500 aircraft over the next ten years, accounting for approximately 26 percent of total market deliveries. Compared to other industry forecasts, this number is considered to be conservative. Demand for the light jet segment is forecasted at 1,750 units.

Embraer recently entered the very light and light jet segments with the launch of the Phenom family. First deliveries of the Phenom 100 very light jet and the Phenom 300 light jet are expected in 2008 and 2009, respectively.

Demand for the super mid-size jet segment it is expected to reach 1,415 units, and for the large jet segment it is estimated at 950 aircraft over the next decade.

Delivery Forecast for 2006 and 2007

Embraer maintains its forecast to deliver 145 aircraft in 2006 and expects to deliver 150 aircraft in the airline segment, business jet segment and authorities transportation of the defense segment in 2007. This estimate takes into consideration airlines filing for bankruptcy protection, cancellations in the 50-seats segment and the growth trend of 70-to 110-seats jets.

In terms of percentages, it is worth highlighting that, in accordance with the new Embraer market forecast, the share of deliveries for jets of the EMBRAER 170/190 family is expected to increase in the coming years. These will represent, starting in 2006, more than 70 percent of the deliveries forecast.

Note to Editors

Embraer (Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica S.A. - NYSE: ERJ; Bovespa: EMBR3 and EMBR4) is the world’s leading manufacturer of Commercial jets up to 110 seats with 36 years of experience in designing, developing, manufacturing, selling and providing after sales support to aircraft for the global Airline, Defense and Business jet markets. With headquarters in São José dos Campos, state of São Paulo, the Company has offices and customer service bases in the United States, France, Portugal, China and Singapore. Embraer is among Brazil’s leading exporting companies. As of September 30, 2005, Embraer had a total workforce of 17,046 people, and its firm order backlog totaled US$ 10.4 billion.

IR Contacts
Anna Cecilia Bettencourt
Carlos Eduardo Camargo
Andrea Bottcher
Paulo Ferreira
Phone: +55 12 3927 4404
Fax: +55 12 3922 6070
e-mail: investor.relations@embraer.com.br

This document may contain projections, statements and estimates regarding circumstances or events yet to take place. Those projections and estimates are based largely on current expectations, forecasts on future events and financial tendencies that affect the Company’s businesses. Those estimates are subject to risks, uncertainties and suppositions that include, among others: general economic, political and trade conditions in Brazil and in those markets where the Company does business; expectations on industry trends; the Company’s investment plans; its capacity to develop and deliver products on the dates previously agreed upon, and existing and future governmental regulations. The words “believe”, “may”, “is able”, “will be able”, “intend”, “continue”, “anticipate”, “expect” and other similar terms are supposed to identify potentialities. The Company does not feel compelled to publish updates nor to revise any estimates due to new information, future events or any other facts. In view of the inherent risks and uncertainties, such estimates, events and circumstances may not take place. The actual results can therefore differ substantially from those previously published as Company expectations.

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